Refereed Journal Publications
Edited Book
Refereed Book Chapters
Miscellaneous
Selected Working Papers
Inactive Working Papers
- Identifying Exchange Rate Effects and Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks in the Presence of Time-Varying Instrument Relevance, with Wenting Liao and Chengsi Zhang, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming.
- International Housing Markets and the U.S. Subprime Crisis, with Shikong Luo, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, forthcoming.
- Is There a National Housing Market Bubble Brewing in the United States?, with Rangan Gupta, Konstantinos Theodoridis, and Mark E. Wohar. Macroeconomic Dynamics, forthcoming.
- Climate Risks and Forecastability of the Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions of the United States, with Oguzhan Cepni, Rangan Gupta, and Wenting Liao, International Review of Finance, forthcoming.
- Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?, with Kevin Lansing and Stephen LeRoy, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 197, May, 2022. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-14)
- Real Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: Evidence Based on a New Markov-STAR Model, with Philip Bertram, Philipp Sibbertsen, and Teresa Flock. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 84, April, 2022.
- Dynamic Comovement Among Banks, Systemic Risk, and the Macroeconomy, with Pavel Kapinos and N. Kundan Kishor. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 138, May, 2022.
- What's Different about Bank Holding Companies?, (Online Appendix) with Ralph Chami, Thomas Cosimano, and Celine Rochon. IMF Working Paper version. Journal of Risk and Financial Management: Banking and Finance section, Vol. 15, April, 2022.
- The Predictive Power of Nelson-Siegel Factor Loadings for the Real Economy, with Yang Han and Anqi Jiao. Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 64, December, 2021.
- Growth Cycles and Business Cycles of the Chinese Economy through the Lens of the Unobserved Components Model, with Yang Han, and Zehao Liu. China Economic Review, Vol. 63, October, 2020.
- What Drives Commodity Returns? Market, Sector or Idiosyncratic Factors?, with Andrew Vivian and Mark E. Wohar. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 82, April, 2020.
- Synchronization of Regional Growth Dynamics in China, with Zhicun Bian, Jinlan Ni and Shamar Stewart. China Economic Review, Vol. 61, June, 2020.
- Global Factors and Equity Market Valuations: Do Country Characteristics Matter?, with Andrew Vivian and Mark E. Wohar, International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 23, October, 2018.
- Common Business Cycles and Volatilities in US States and MSAs: The Role of Economic Uncertainty, with Rangan Gupta, Marian Risse, and Mark E. Wohar, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 57, September, 2018.
- Nonlinear Taylor Rules: Evidence from a Large Dataset, with Eric Olson and Mark E. Wohar, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (special issue in honor of Walter Enders), Vol. 22, February, 2018.
- The Impact of EMU on Bond Yield Convergence: Evidence from a Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Model, with Vipul Bhatt and N. Kundan Kishor, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 82, September, 2017.
- Explaining Exchange Rate Anomalies in a Model with Taylor-rule Fundamentals and Consistent Expectations, with Kevin Lansing, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 70, February, 2017. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2014-22)
- A Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Yield Curve Model with Markov Switching, with Jared Levant. Economic Modelling, Vol. 67, December, 2017.
- Investigating United Kingdom's Monetary Policy with Macro Factor Augmented Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Models, with Jared Levant, Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 37, June, 2016.
- Understanding Housing Market Volatility, with Joseph Fairchild and Shu Wu, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.47, No.7, October, 2015.
- A Bayesian Analysis of Weak Identification in Stock Price Decomposition, with Nathan S. Balke and Mark E. Wohar, Macroeconomic Dynamics (special issue in honor of Charles R. Nelson), Vol. 19, Issue 4, June, 2015.
- Expected Returns and Expected Dividend Growth: Time to Rethink an Established Empirical Literature, with Mark E. Wohar, Applied Economics, Vol. 46, Issue 21, 2014.
- Determining What Drives Stock Returns? Proper Inference Is Crucial: Evidence from the UK, with Mark E. Wohar, International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 33, September, 2014.
- An Unobserved Components Model That Yields Business and Medium-Run Cycles, with Mark E. Wohar, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 45, No.7, October, 2013.
- Portfolio Reallocation and Exchange Rate Dynamics, with Liang Ding, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 37, No. 8, August, 2013.
- The Contribution of Economic Fundamentals to Movements in Exchange Rates, with Nathan S. Balke and Mark E. Wohar, Journal of International Economics, Vol.90, Issue 1, May, 2013. (Lead Article)
- Long-Run Risk and Its Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle: New Evidence from a Multivariate Framework, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.45, No.1, February, 2013. (online appendices)
This is a substantial revision of the earlier paper "The Long-Run Risk in Consumption and Equity Premium Puzzle: New Evidence Based on Improved Inference."
- Sources of the Stock Price Fluctuations in Chinese Equity Market, with Zhenhua Su and Mark E. Wohar, European Journal of Finance (special issue on Chinese equity market), Vol.20, 7-9, 2014. (online appendices)
- Sources of the Great Moderation: A Time Series Analysis of GDP Subsectors, with Walter Enders, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol.35, No.1, January, 2011.
- Spurious Inference in the GARCH(1,1) Model When It Is Weakly Identified, with Charles R. Nelson, Richard Startz, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Vol.11, No.1, March, 2007. (Lead Article)
- Is the Poor Quality of Chinese Civic Awareness Preventing Democracy in China? A Case Study of Zeguo Township, with Zhenhua Su, Junjie Le, and Yongjing Zhang, Asian Perspective, Vol.36, No.1, March, 2012.
- The Characteristics of 'Club Convergence' of China's Economic Growth and Its Causes, with Kunrong Shen, Economic Research Journal (经济研究), No.1, January, 2002.
Edited Book
- Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models with Applications in Economics and Finance, co-edited with Mark E. Wohar, 2013, Springer.
Refereed Book Chapters
- The Market and Individual Pricing Kernels Under No Arbitrage Asset Pricing Models, with Thomas Cosimano, in M. Mili et al (eds.), New Methods in Fixed Income Modeling, Contributions to Management Science, Springer, 2018, forthcoming.
- The Superiority of the LM Test in a Class of Econometrics Models Where Standard Wald Test Performs Poorly, with Charles R. Nelson. in Siem Jan Koopman and Neil Shephard (Eds.) Unobserved Components and Time Series Econometrics, Oxford University Press, 2016.
- The Stock Return Predictability and Stock Price Decomposition in the Chinese Equity Market, with Zhenhua Su and Mark E. Wohar, in Douglas Cumming, Alessandra Guariglia, Wenxuan Hou, and Edward Lee (Ed.) Experiences and Challenges in the Development of the Chinese Capital Market, Palgrave, 2016.
- A Statistical Investigation of Stock Return Decomposition Based on the State Space Framework, with Mark E. Wohar, in Shu Wu and Yong Zeng (Ed.) State-Space Models and Applications in Economics and Finance, Springer, 2013.
- Stock Returns and Inflation: An Analysis Based on the State-Space Framework, with Jared Levant and Mark E. Wohar, in Jun Ma and Mark E. Wohar (Eds.) Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models with Applications in Economics and Finance, Springer, 2013.
Miscellaneous
- Editorial Introduction: Special Issue Honoring the Contributions of Walter Enders, with Junsoo Lee, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Vol. 22, February, 2018.
- Book Review of Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality, edited by William R. Bell, Scott H. Holan, and Tucker S. McElroy, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 109, Issue 505, 2014.
Selected Working Papers
- Estimating the Interest Rate Trend in a Shadow Rate Term Structure Model, with Yang Han.
- Commodity returns co-movement, uncertainty shocks, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate, with Wenting Liao and Chengsi Zhang. Revise and Resubmit, Journal of International Money and Finance.
Inactive Working Papers